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• Forecasting productivity growth 2004 to 2024

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Overview

DCITA has undertaken extensive macro research into the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on Australian productivity growth. Recent studies have focused on exploring the impact of ICT on productivity growth in manufacturing and service industries.

Publications

Forecasting Productivity Growth 2004 to 2024

This report presents forecasts of productivity growth in major sectors of the Australian economy between 2004 and 2024. The report suggest that information and communication technology will remain the main technological driver of productivity growth over the next 20 years.

Estimating Aggregate Productivity Growth for Australia: The Role of Information and Communications Technology
This research is an extension of work in 2004 undertaken by Professor Erwin Diewert and Dr Denis Lawrence for the former National Office for the Information Economy on the assumptions underlying index number methods for estimating the contribution of information and communications technology (ICT) to productivity growth. The new report examines Australia’s productivity performance over the past 45 years. It also presents the D&L detailed econometric model, the findings of the modelling work conclusions and lay out the priorities for future work. An appendix provides a detailed explanation of the formation of the D&L productivity database and lists the variables. The report also summarises the key features of the database. It describes the main differences between the D&L database and that used by the ABS in producing its multifactor productivity (MFP) estimates.

ICT and Australian productivity: methodologies and measurement
A broad consensus is emerging among international economic agencies and in the productivity literature that, over recent times, information and communications technology (ICT) has played a significant role in increasing the productivity of industrialised countries. This has sparked a debate in academic and policy circles on how best to model innovation-based growth, and, in particular, how to identify the role and contribution of transforming ‘general purpose technologies’ (GPTs) like ICT. As a consequence, the development of improved methods of measuring productivity growth and an improved understanding of multi- or total factor productivity (MFP or TFP), the traditional indicator of macroeconomic performance, has become more urgent. The four studies of the report address the complex issues that ICT raises for productivity, from very different and complementary perspectives, but with an Australian focus. As a whole, the studies in this volume point to ICT having a central role in Australia strong productivity performance.

Productivity Growth in Service Industries (April 2005)
This report examines productivity growth between 1984–85 and 2001–02 in market oriented service industries. It presents strong indications that the main driver of productivity growth in these sectors has been the rapid take-up of ICT. According to the econometric estimates presented, between 59 and 78 per cent of productivity growth can be attributed to technological factors and between 22 and 41 per cent to institutional-economic changes.

Productivity Growth in Australian Manufacturing (March 2004)
It is clear from Australian studies that microeconomic reform has played an important role across the economy in general. This study indicates that for many parts of the manufacturing sector, ICT has had a much more significant contribution than was previously suspected. The results suggest that high-technology and capital intensive industries tend to record higher productivity growth than the rest. The strong correlation between productivity growth and R&D intensity highlights the importance of "technological paths" in determining productivity growth.

The Role of ICT in Australian MultiFactor Productivity (October 2003)
At the Communications Research Forum 2003 conference, a staff paper was presented that explored the relationships between multifactor productivity growth, information and communications technology, economic output and growth cycles. The material used in this presentation is included in chapter 5 of ICT and Australian productivity: methodologies and measurement – see above. 

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• Document ID: 34307 |
• Last modified: 5 February 2008, 3:41pm